It Could Be Said #56 A Not So Happy Birthday For Joe Biden
All political careers end in failure...even the longest
Last week saw President Joe Biden celebrate his 82nd Birthday whilst attending the G20 Summit in Brazil. There were few celeberations given the current circumstances, with his reputation diminished by his failed attempt to run for re-election and his legacy months away from being unpicked due to the failure of his Vice-President to fully salvage the dire situation she inherited from him. In two months time he will slink out of Washington DC a diminished figure, with not only the dreams of a historic presidency but the bipartisan warmth and reverence that greeted his departure from the Vice-Presidency a distant memory.
In many ways this was inevitable. In retrospect we missed the most important number in the 2020 results, which was Donald Trump somehow convincing an additional twelve million people to vote for his re-election despite him repeatedly failing to meet the basic requirements of the presidency. The man actually gained vote share despite having lost complete control of the American response to coronavirus on numerous occassions.
At the time this was either ignored due to relief that Joe Biden had won, or explained away as a consequence of the rally-round-the-flag effect that had been visible throughout Covid. The problem with the the latter argument is the American elections actually took place at a bad time for incumbents with the initial shock of the imposition of lockdown and the relief at unwinding of some restrictions during the summer in the past, and vaccines allowing us to control the virus without lockdowns still in the future. If you look at the UK, having reached highs of above 50% vote share in opinion polls at the start of the crisis, by November they were beginning to consistently poll below 40%.
Tory Vote Share % In Opinion Polls From March to November 6th (Data from )
Likewise, Democrats in the House and Republicans in the Senate both went backwards, underlying that it was not a good environment for incumbents. Then two years later the relief at Democrats retaining the Senate in 2022 obscured that this was largely due to poor candidate selection by GOP primary electorates and that the Republicans retook the House despite the consensus that Democrats now had an advantage in low turnout elections.
By 2022 it was no secret that Biden was not viable electorally. Whereas as recently as 2018 he was an in-demand surrogate for frontline Democrats, he was shunned by everyone as his approval rating touched minus 16ppt; that was slightly worse than Donald Trump at the same point of the previous cycle. What people had slightly forgotten is that the unique circumstances of coronavirus masked the diffident campaigning style of the much diminished veteran, something that had given his effforts in the pre-pandemic Democratic primaries a certain “Weekend at Bernies” feeling. Having emerged as the presumptive nominee before social distancing became mandatory due to deserved backlash against an arrogant Bernie Sanders campaign, Biden was able to run as close to a modern-day front porch campaign in both the remaining primaries and general election as any Presidential candidate will ever get to do again.
And the need to run such a light schedule speaks to the issue that will now forever haunt Joe Biden’s presidency; the impact his age had on his health and ability to do the job of President. Biden had long moved stiffly, spoke softly, and reacted slowly compared to his performances as Obama’s Vice-President let alone as a garrulous Senator. Pundits like
assumed that this more restrained public persona was a deliberate attempt to appease his staffers and appear Presidential. It turned out that Biden was not throttling back his natural gregiousness, but actually was a much diminished figure. It caused his re-election campaign to implode at the first hurdle, with his hangdog display during the first debate creating a panic that ultimately forced him to step a side. It meant his intermittent interventions in the general election on behalf of his deputy were at best halting and at worst counterproductive. And it has been striking that he has been unable to hit a higher gear now that the election is over with him struggling to fulfil even an extraordinarily light schedule during the G20.It’s a sad end to a presidency that promised so much and a life in public service that lasted for so long. But actually, far from being inevitable, if Biden could have seen the bigger picture, this sad ending could have been avoided.
Build Biden’s Bowing Out Better
You did get some silly people suggest that Biden resign now so that Kamala Harris could get a few pity weeks as President before the man who defeated her took over. Such a sop would not only trivalise the achievement of being the first woman president but also thumb a nose at the electorate that clearly voted against Harris.
However the idea of Biden resigning the presidency should not be so quickly dismissed. What if rather than doing it in the shadow of shattering election defeat for his party, he did it after a score draw that most were writing up as a surprise win? A Biden resignation in November 2022 would bring to a close a surprisingly momenumental two-year presidency that had seen major legislation past to provide stimulus to the economy, boost scientific research and encourage investment in green energy. Meanwhile he had appointed progressive judges, rewrote regulations to be more progressive, and renewed the Democrat’s relationship with organised labour. It was a momentum that it was clear couldn’t be sustained in the forthcoming two years given the Democrats’s losses in the House. Indeed, in retrospect, the party needed to moderate to reassure swing voters that had become alarmed by big increases in government spending.
Two years isn’t very long to be President but it does come after eight years as Vice-President; ten years at the top of American politics would put him behind only Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Richard Nixon, Thomas Jefferson, John Adams, and George H.W. Bush in terms of longevity at top. And none of them can match his thirty-six years as a Senator before being elected into executive office. Indeed, such a resignation would not only coincide with Biden’s 80th birthday but also the 50th anniversary of him being elected to the Senate. Biden would be able to turn his depature into a celebration of five decades of public service, presenting himself as a dominant figure in American political history.
And of course Biden’s resignation would set for the stage for no ordinary transition. His resignation would have shattered the world’s largest glass ceiling, ushering in the first woman President of the United States of America. He would have been praised by feminists across the world for graciously making way for a female subordinate that he recognised could do the job just as well as him. It would surely cement his place in the history books, burnishing his status as “First Ally” that began with his public bromance with Barack Obama before their relationship soured in 2015. And to the extent that personally defeating Trump was important above and beyond defeating today’s GOP, his depature would only increase the sense that Trump was a figure from another era during his initial struggles to impose himself on the Republican primaries.
Congratulations….Mademe President
An interesting question would be when Biden should resign. My thought would be that it should have taken place around when the new Congress first met on 3rd January 2023. The most important reason is that this would justify allowing the outgoing Congress to ratify the new Vice-President, so that Democrats retained control of the entire process. It would also align with Joe Biden’s stated reason for resigning due to his advanced age and lengthy public service, so preempting any accusations a deal was done for Kamala Harris’s benefit. That this would involve Harris giving up the prospect of a second re-election would further protect her from any criticism of undue preferment, and be less of a sacrifice than it appears given the failure of Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson and George H.W. Bush to secure such a second re-election.
For the reasons that she clawed back a significant amount of distance on Donald Trump during the campaign, I think Harris would have succeeded as President in this timeline. Her relative youth and higher energy levels would have made her a more proactive and political President than Joe Biden, allowing Democrats to get back on the front foot. With bipartisan consensus needed to pass any legislation through Congress she would be free to position herself as a more moderate President than her predecessors, especially as she would have complete authority to change policy whereas as a candidate she had to be careful not to break with the man who was still her boss. And to the extent that a sexist reluctance to elect a woman President hurt Harris, her being able to fulfil the role for two years before standing for re-election would have reassured persuadable voters. And if she somehow did fail to perform in the role, there would be enough time for people to challenge her in the primaries.
It sounds incredible, but it is worth remembering that Biden ultimately had to half-heartedly and chaotically make way for Kamala Harris this year. In this alternative reality he not only gets the credit for facilitating the first female President but is sparred the drift and division of his final two years as President. Leaving early also means that whether Harris succeeds or fails would be entirely on her rather than most reasonably concluding that she was left a next-to-impossible task by her boss. At most, should Trump still be elected in this alternative timeline, people would wish that Biden had been young enough to face Trump for a second time.
When you stand back and look at the big picture you realise that Biden had everything to gain and nothing to lose by leaving the presidency early. I’m absolutely writing with the benefit of hindsight, but one can’t help but wonder what could have been if Biden had recognise the limits of his body and made a bold decision.